The $4.4 Billion Problem & the market built around fixing it
Unclaimed Aid
NCAN tracks unclaimed Pell Grants by graduating class. The Class of 2024 hit a record $4.4B — driven by the botched FAFSA rollout and expanded Pell eligibility under the Simplification Act. Each bar is an unserved market.
$4.4B
Unclaimed (2024)
NCAN, Class of 2024
830K
Pell-eligible non-filers
Left money on the table
$5,339
Avg per student
If they had filed
Mandate Impact
Every state that implemented a FAFSA mandate saw immediate national ranking jumps. Mandates without tools create frustrated students and overwhelmed counselors — that's the gap Grant LLM fills.
Texas
#23→#5
National ranking
Alabama
#34→#9
National ranking
Illinois
#10→#4
National ranking
Louisiana
#12→#2
National ranking
Market Size
TAM covers all 5,378 Title IV institutions plus statewide contracts. SAM locks in on the 12 mandate states. SOM is conservative — the real inflection point is the first state contract.
TAM
$300M
5,378 institutions + 50 states
SAM
$80M
12 mandate states + high-need institutions
SOM Y3
$6.5M
Year 3 midpoint (low $3M / high $10M)
SOM Y5
$27.5M
Year 5 midpoint (low $15M / high $40M)
5,378
Title IV institutions
FSA Annual Report FY2024
12 states
Active mandates
44% of U.S. seniors
$937M
Accenture FSA contract
Benchmark — Aug 2025
Revenue Build
Low case: conservative pricing, slow state adoption. High case: enrollment ROI lands, first state contract by Year 3. Both sequences are identical — prove in Virginia, expand to mandate states.
$0
Year 1 revenue
Grant-funded VT pilot
$2M high
Year 2 upside
15–40 institutions
$40M ARR
Year 5 ceiling
Multi-state + 200+ schools
University ROI Calculator
Model the ROI case for a university partner. Adjust assumptions to match institution size and context — the tool cost is consistently a fraction of the value created.